It seems that most accept the deal accept Greece!!

So 17 countries consulted and made an agreement.
Banks in each country coming forward in order to say whether they need cash. Funnily enough a number of French banks.
However, what is it about these Greeks!
It seems they may not all agree with the 50 % write down of their debt. It seems some party in greece wants 100% write off!!

Bear in mind that 90% of Greeks are government employed.
Bear in mind most do not pay the correct or even any tax.
where will their salaries come from I wonder!!

Expect things to go pear shape.

Immigration rules MUST change

According to a new report
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/8851902/Migrants-to-send-Britains-population-soaring-to-largest-in-EU.html

Immigration must change and NOW, before it'S too late. We only have so much space!

Don't get too excited about the Euro announcement

Please be sceptical of the announcements last night.

1. Other agreements have failed
2. It depends on economies picking up globally
3. Greeks don't pay taxes and this depends on tax revenues in Greece
4. Banks losing 50% of their money means they won't lend to Greece in a hurry
5. Private investors are likely to lose it all so they certainly won't lend to Greece
6. The French will play their part.
7. The details could take months and Greece runs out of money anyway

Otherwise, we could see the global economy not pick up and this agreement falls flat.
More money is needed
French banks lose more
France loses it's AAA rating which it could still lose!

The Euro joke!

So let's get this straight.
The French want the special bail out fund to provide money for the Greeks and others.
The Germans are refusing this.

The French want the ECB to buy all bonds from troubled countries
The Germans are refusing.

The ECB, say the Germans, cannot buy the bonds as it compromises their neutral stance and will not allow them to fight inflation when it comes, as it will.
The French will not agree.

Now the IMF may step in, which means the UK will be asked for money, which means we help to bail out the Euro eventhough we are not part of it.

This is what I said many weeks ago.
I REST MY CASE
This is a set up!!

Disquiet in Libya

Expect some disquiet in Libya after the burial of Gadaffi.
This is now the anti-climax period.
Still there needs to be Food, Water, Jobs and money!!

I am not seeing too much of this happening.

Bank of England agrees with me and the French are smoke screening

There you go, I must be good.
The BOE agrees that the current bailing out won't cure the problem as I said yesterday.

Shame they can't do anything for the UK to get it back on it's feet, like penalize banks who don't lend !!

Sarkozy moaning at the UK yesterday is just a smoke screen for the French to get funding for their ailing banks..
Can you imagine they want a single Treasury. This is so they can their hands on tax money, but in the case of Greece as it'S a national hobby to avoid paying, how will this work. IT WON'T. I repeat the town of Corinth in 6 months collected Euro 18,000 in VaT. Not good and won't work!!
So let me see, we need fúnding for helping out Greece. Oh we must tax more in every country!
WILL NOT WORK.
THE EURO IS DEAD.

Don't be fooled about the Euro!!

I know I am boring but the fact is I do this blog as a number of people never believed that I said things that came true.
Let me make it clear:
I am good at Macro-Economics and I am good with Common Sense and to most of my friends and acquaintances I also have held the power to foretell things.

So let's just be blunt here.
1. The euro as it stands has failed miserably
2. The quicker Greece defaults the quicker and we can move on
3. UK should not be part of the Eu nor the Euro
4. There has to be at least 3 Tiers of credit levels in the Euro
5. Cameron is wrong in what he is doing by voting against a Referendum
6. The French will come into trouble and all of this brinkmanship between UK and France is wasteful, because any agreement between Germany and France will become void. Don't you know any International company managed any a Frenchman is bound to go wrong.
7. French are one of the most corrupted societies going. I know in the banking world it's rife!
8. The outburst by Sarkozy is to take the problems of the French banks away from the fore news and also it happens to be a re-election next year.
9. The Euro problems will get worse. Any figures quotes to cover debt and keep things going please double from now.
10. The Greeks, Italians, French, Irsih, Spanish, Portugese are all lying about their debt amount problems.
so if they say Euro 1.8 trillion then make 3.5 trillion.
11. Recovery will not happen until 2016 as I have said.
12. Cash is King!!
13. Gold will go up again to about USD 3000 level. Why? 'cos there isn't enough of the stuff physically out of the ground!!

Let's stop at lucky 13 shall we!!

France Germany relationship in trouble

How odd is that. I write about France being in trouble and then a few weeks later it's in the headlines!
Expect this to escalate and will likely break the Entante Cordial between Germany and France for the Euro and EU!

Tax increases actually means lower tax revenue

Osborne really hasn't learned yet how economics works.
2 tax rises on petrol which has already caused revenues to drop, will drop further.
The idea is that the new rises will bring in an extra Stg 3.5 bn.
My guess is that tax revenues on petrol will actually drop!

Logic says that if petrol goes down, people travel more and spend more and therefore more tax revenue

We shall see who is right!

Conservative EU revolt

I mentioned some weeks ago that the Tory MP's had collected about 120 (about a third of Tories)  against the EU.
I think this is now climbing fast, which is why David Cameron is trying to use the Whip to ask MP's not to vote for a Referendum.
However, in the current circumstances it is becoming clear what it is costing the UK.
Numbers can only grow and as I said yesterday, Cameron promised a Referendum to the voters in his manifesto.
It is political suicide for him to continue along this avenue!

Cameron goes against his word

In the run up to the election David Cameron said he would give a referendum for the EU membership.
Now he is ordering his MP's to vote against a Referendum and we the voters have no say!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/8835447/Conservatives-ordered-to-vote-against-EU-referendum.html

If this i how he is going to act, then the Tories should be removed !

They forget, we voted them in to act on our behalf and not what they think we want!!

Top Bankers should be made responsible

As a high percentage of the current global economic crisis has been caused by banks through greed, it's time they are held responsible.
Look at Sir Fred Goodwin. Not only is he a liar about his private life, when it came to the crisis in 2008 he showed up at Alistair Darlings house to ask what he was going to do to dig RBS out of the mess!
Then he was offered Stg 400,000 a year pension, but he wanted Stg 800,000.
 He got massive bonuses.
In the end he didn't get his pension but is living very well and we are suffering because of his ineptitude.
Therefore, it's time to make these arrogant executives pay.

I say they should held accountable and jailed after an inquiry to totally discredit them.

Europe, the UK crisis and China

1. Greece is bankrupt. We all know that. Nothing will stop their misery. Even if a fix is found now it won't solve the problem and that is the Greeks are habitual tax evaders. With no revenues the country will never have money. We all know that Greece was NOT eligible for the EU, but to prove the UK wrong about not entering, they allowed them to cook the books. Now the problem.
With Greece partially defaulting will still not solve the basic issue.
France is in deep trouble as I mentioned about 2 weeks ago.
Germany is now being hit and I see this first hand.

2. The UK as I said many weeks ago will end up having to try and dig the EU and the Euro out of the mire!. The IMF want our contribution of Stg 20bln and the UK has pledged another Stg 10bln to help the Euro and why? We are supporting Ireland to the tune of about Stg40 bln. Here is the crux of the matter. The UK is in deep financial problems, the EU is trying to hit on the UK all the time to dig them out, but who is there to help the UK? Basically the UK is broke as well. So how does it work that a broken economy and country funds another broken sovereign? This sounds like money going around the system, but no solution!

3. China is in deep talks to dig Europe out of the mess. This means as I mentioned many months ago that China is taking over and will command huge demands eventually. Now they are forcing countries to make more austerity packages as well as taking some of their industry. Greece they have the Ship building now , they have utility companies, they have car manufacturing. I can't stress enough how they are taking over. Where will their money come from? USA of course. They will liquidate their holdings and cause big issues int eh USA, which I don't think has been mentioned yet!

Watch this space!

Split the Euro interest rates to save the Euro

I am old enough that when I started as a trader we had a 2 tier Sterling deposit market.
I can also remember Sterling interest rates at 35% and also French Franc interest rates for overnight at 3000%.

It will make sense for the Euro to look at the credit of each member and introduce a similar 2 or 3 tier market.
This will stop the Euro collapsing.

Tier 1  = market rates
Tier 2 = market rates + 0.75%
Tier 3 = market rates + 2%

This will then save the Euro currency but give a credit spread for the countries rating.

Uk Economy and the Eurozone crisis

As I have been talking about, the UK is being asked by the IMF to give about STG20bn of further funds for the Euro crisis.

So who said we won't be digging them out.
I stated this a few weeks ago.
With our economy weak according to the report in the link, we have a reason not to help them out.
After all it was the members fault so they need to take responsibility, don't they?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8830575/UK-economy-brought-to-grinding-halt-by-euro-crisis.html

The UK government needs to have a rethink on this.
Of course the fact that the Labour and the coalition was in a mess, allowed the Tories to put in an aggressive austerity package. However, it seems to be strangling our economy.
My thought is that they should:

Ease corporation tax
Re-Introduce apprentice payments to employers

Just two measures will make a difference.

When will we see a turnaround in the Economic crisis?

With the way that the Economic process works when banks are willing to lend money to Small businesses and to individuals is when the tide has turned.
Anything mentioned by the governments and press you can dispel until this anomaly occurs!

UK Banks will lose clients

UK banks are now cutting peoples overdraft by up to 75%.
The banks have caused most of the Global economic problems and are again turning the screws.
I my experience it will turn people away from banks.
I am sure we will return to some sort of pay packet again and the banks profits will collapse and wonder why!

The EU is now saying that UK should help pay for Euro mess because it's a debt problem and not just Euro!!!

This is a direct translation from the Suddeutsche Zeitungs news paper in Germany.

This is exactly what I warned about months ago !!

The debt crisis is a problem in all EU countries, not just the euro-zone, EU Commission President Manuel Barroso will. Even countries like the UK should therefore participate in the rescue of Greece, he asks. It is in their own interest. Is difficult to convince the London: Foreign Minister denounced the Hague € recently as "madness".

"It was madness to create this system, for centuries it is written as a historical monument to collective madness". This sentence said a few days ago, British Foreign Secretary William Hague, the political magazine The Spectator .

Jose Manuel Barroso, 2011Enlarge

José Manuel Barroso in September 2011 during an interview in the Süddeutsche Zeitung editorial (© Alessandra Schellnegger)

Hague's words are unusually dramatic, but they reflect a fundamental skepticism of London against the idea of ​​European unification, which prevails in the Festlnd. And one can easily imagine how the most recent initiative of the EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on the euro rescue where he was admitted.

Barroso wants to participate in all EU countries in the rescue of Greece. "I would hope that all countries provide support if they have the financial means to," said the President of the European Commission of the image -Zeitung. Barroso explicitly closed while those States which are not members of the Euro-zone, such as Great Britain. The hoped-for successes in their own interest and solidarity is a self-protection. "If the euro is tottering, that all countries in trouble - even with its own currency. "

Potential financial consequences for Germany as part of the bailout received guarantees for Greeceand other debts of the EU-Commission considers reasonable.It could be that Germany "exercise as the biggest economy of Europe in their own interest to keep the Euro, our economy and jobs solidarity" would have said Barroso. "But that is manageable in comparison to what we would flourish if the euro is falling apart."

Barroso pointed out that Germany went through the loans and guarantees for debt-€ countries so far not lost money. Nevertheless, he understood the concerns of the German tax payer. "But you also have to say that Germany, as Europe's biggest economy will benefit most from the euro."

Euro group chief Jean-Claude Juncker holds a debt of Greece to cut imaginable. "I will make a debt-section is not made. But you should not think that it's enough simply to make a brutal debt section in Greece. We must ensure that this does not lead to contagion risks in the euro zone," said Juncker, the Austrian TV channel ORF.

About the size of a debt-section would not speculate on, Luxembourg's prime minister. The European leaders were the situation in the crisis-ridden Euro-member country continue to debate.

Marko Kranjec, Slovenia's central bank chief and council member of the European Central Bank (ECB) is expecting a debt restructuring in Greece, but not with a state bankruptcy. "I am confident that Greece will not go bankrupt, at least not in the sense that there are other countries is taken into the abyss. A restructuring is highly probable and is already being discussed, "said Kranjec. "The euro will survive."

This Tuesday, the eyes are directed to Bratislava. There, the parliament of Slovakia will decide on the enlargement of the euro rescue package. Following approval from Malta only has approval from the Slovak. The referendum should end with a No, the extension of the rescue EFSF not be implemented.

In case of rejection also threatened a premature end to the government. However, it could in the Slovak Parliament in a no a second time to vote on the bailout. A crisis meeting of the Council of four government coalition parties had gone on that Monday evening without agreement on the euro rescue package to end.

Meanwhile, also expressed this year's Nobel Prize for Economics for the euro crisis. "Europe and the euro are not the economic theory with new questions, the problem is politics, "said U.S. economist Thomas Sargent. He shares the Nobel Prize with colleague Christopher Sims.

As a possible way out of crisis struck Sargent from the countries of the Euro-zone, take the story of the United States as an example: After its independence in 1776 had the 13 U.S. founding nations resolved their respective debt crises by pooled their budgets under a new federal government have that could counteract with their own tax policy.

These steps are primarily a bold political decision dar. "We were born with a decisivesolution to the problems with which Europe is facing today, "said Sargent. "It all happened simultaneously, using a process that looks like a miracle." Something similar could also create Europe. Sargent also mate Sims pleaded for a common fiscal policy in the euro zone. The exclusion of weak euro-zone countries is no solution to the problem € said the 68-year-old American economist.

Economy over next 5 years

Certain things just don't add up!
I am reading Alistair Darlings book.
in 2008 he was a very astute person and my estimation in the guy as a Chancellor has gone up no end!
He lost his job, basically, because he said the UK economy was the worst for 60 years. In fact he under estimated it even then. Gordon Brown and Ed Balls had no idea.
Again even in 2008 he knew as did other European people that Dexia was in trouble. Today it's being bailed out.

In my blog last week I mentioned about this guy in Dallas making millions if not billions from the markets.
2 things to mention here:
1. There are too many Gold futures contracts for the amount of physical gold! So not enough to be delivered.
2. He said no one had previously, all the figures of Sovereign debt and he mentioned that after his investigation Ireland had debt 25 times more than it's revenues! Japan and France are 10 times.

The next thing to mention is that with Quantitive Easing in the UK what does this do?
1. Gives banks more money to lose
2. The banks are not using it for lending to businesses to get the economy moving.
3. It instills inflation.

Also, in Alastair Darlings book it became very obvious that apart from 1 Banker all the others had no idea what to do. Sir Fred Goodwin went to his house and asked the Chancellor what he was going to do!

So this is what I am coming to.
The economy will not pick up for a while. The Government and the regulatory authorities have no idea what the figures are and therefore, cannot make a final decision and that's why the problems will continue.
The UK banks are not lending, purely because of low profit. If you can get a loan today it will be at 14.9% against their funding of less than 1%.
Inflation MUST go up on any recovery. The UK banks will be the first to raise rates and then and only then will they lend.
So as I predicted some months ago Interest rates have to go up to between 10-15%. This should happen by 2016 which is the date I said recovery will be confirmed.
So if you have a long term view, buy bank shares in those banks that didn't need help from the government.

Desmond Tutu is 80 today but what will it be remembered for?

Congrats Desmond, who is still agile and active in life.
However, what will his birthday be known for?

The start of the Chinese global rule!
As I have said before, China is taking over all resources in the world and I also mentioned their taking over of Africa.
So how did this affect Desmond.
Well he wanted the Dalai Lama to come to his party and the government didn't act quick enough to give him a visa and why?
Yes you have it the Chinese told the South Africans not to process a visa for him.
Can you imagine in the past such a thing. Of course not the Dalai Lama wouldn't have needed a visa they would have whisked him in and marketed the fact!

So governments be warned the take over and pressure has started!!

Conservative conference

Basically, it highlighted the problems with the coalition and within the Tories.
Cameron made some errors and quickly adjusted his speech accordingly after having leaked their content to see how the Tories viewed his comments.
Then all he could do was to ask people to show the 'Bulldog' spirit which means he can't think of anything else.
Highlights:

* The Prime Minister pledged to introduce new tax breaks for married couples, although there was no detail on when or how the tax system would be reformed. This was made after comments by Ian Duncan-Smith who highlighted before the conference that the PM hadn't introduced what he promised.

Amid fears among his aides that Mr Cameron is alienating women, the speech also reiterated a pledge to make Britain more family-friendly. The Conservative leader also stressed his awareness of the problems faced by millions of people struggling to cope with higher household bills. Not sure how this stops alienating women?

* Mr Cameron expressed his frustration at European regulations which were hindering enterprise – and promised to do everything possible to free up business in a bid to kick-start the economic recovery.

No details how!

* A new “focus” on adoption was announced, with councils warned they must end politically-correct guidelines which blocked inter-racial adoptions. He also expressed his concern at the “apartheid between our private and state schools” which he described as “one of the biggest wasted opportunities in our country”. 

He didn't go further with Politically Correct uselessness!

* The Conservative leader launched a robust defence of controversial proposals to reform the planning system. However, he said he was “open to constructive ideas” as ministers prepare to water down parts of the proposed reforms. Backtracking.

* The courts were ordered to make the “speedy justice” introduced in the wake of the riots the norm. Mr Cameron said that his “driving mission in politics” was to create a stronger society where people knew the difference between “right and wrong”. The courts just adjourned 99% of the riot hearings so it didn't really do anything.

In the speech, the Prime Minister also compared the decision to intervene in Libya to his determination to tackle the country’s economic problems.

“When it came to that decision to help the Libyan people, there was something dispiriting about the debate here in Britain,” Mr Cameron said. “It wasn’t that some people thought we shouldn’t do what we did – that it’s never right – that’s a point of view and of course it’s everyone’s right to disagree.

“It was that too many thought Britain actually couldn’t do something like that any more. And you hear that kind of pessimism about our economic future, our social problems, our political system. That our best days are behind us. That we’re on a path of certain decline. Well I’m here to tell you that it isn’t true.”

What will Libya give the Uk? Nothing! The new government said it will not favour the Brits. After the last bombing by USA the French sneaked in and took all contracts. Watch them do it again, saying they played a major part!

Over the next weeks this conference will be ripped apart!

GMT to end!

The French ar at it again and it looks likely that they will win.
They want to stop the use of GMT and use the atomic clock, which differs to GMT by about one second in so many years.
What is the point?
Because the French don't want anything that is EEngleesh!
This will mean changes to clocks, procedures, books etc.

Is this another way to create jobs and expense.
Not really just the Frogs being belligerent!