Oil must come down to about USD45

Why has oil gone up so much? Currently just under USD75
Because the Chinese have been manufacturing like mad and need the oil for their power.
Now there is a massive move for Austerity packages in the western world and in the USA, the cheap Chinese goods and manufacturing will go down and therefore the demand for oil from the chinese.
I believe that this should make oil fall quite a bit. However, will the governments let the petrol price drop . By experience earlier this year not at all, they need all the tax possible!!!!